Rethinking Highest Possible Ambition
2025 is now projected to be the second or third warmest year on record, surpassed only by 2024, the hottest year so far, when global temperatures reached 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels.
Although the long-term global warming trend so far remains below the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, current emission trajectories suggest with relative certainty that we will surpass 1.5°C in the near future.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines the temporary exceedance and return to the 1.5°C as “overshoot”.
Overshoot brings several new governance challenges, including the need for more mitigation actions as emissions must be reduced to achieve net-zero and net-negativity to return to 1.5°C as quickly as possible.
Current emission trajectories suggest with relative certainty that we will surpass 1.5°C in the near future.
Author summary: Climate change mitigation requires urgent action.
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