Fitch expects Romania’s ESA public deficit at 7% of GDP next year and 6.5% in 2027

Romania's Public Deficit Forecast

Fitch expects Romania’s ESA public deficit at 7% of GDP next year and 6.5% in 2027.

Rating agency Fitch projected that the country’s public deficit under ESA methodology would decline from 9.3% last year to 8.5% in 2025, followed by a gradual reduction to 7% of GDP in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027.

This forecast is based on Romania’s 2025 budget revision and the macroeconomic forecast, which predicts muted growth of 0.7% this year, rising to 1.2% in 2026 and 2027.

The expected deficit reduction is a one-year delay compared to the trajectory set by the country under the seven-year fiscal consolidation plan.

Romania’s deficit has marked a modest 0.3 percentage point improvement from 8.7% in 2023 to 8.

Author's summary: Fitch forecasts Romania's public deficit to decline.

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Romania Insider Romania Insider — 2025-10-13

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