Fitch expects Romania’s ESA public deficit at 7% of GDP next year and 6.5% in 2027.
Rating agency Fitch projected that the country’s public deficit under ESA methodology would decline from 9.3% last year to 8.5% in 2025, followed by a gradual reduction to 7% of GDP in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027.
This forecast is based on Romania’s 2025 budget revision and the macroeconomic forecast, which predicts muted growth of 0.7% this year, rising to 1.2% in 2026 and 2027.
The expected deficit reduction is a one-year delay compared to the trajectory set by the country under the seven-year fiscal consolidation plan.
Romania’s deficit has marked a modest 0.3 percentage point improvement from 8.7% in 2023 to 8.
Author's summary: Fitch forecasts Romania's public deficit to decline.